The UK Potato Market - A Farmer's View
June 2008
This year's maincrop is finally planted. On the whole the seed potatoes went into good soil conditions when the weather finally allowed the machines onto the land. In our area most of March and April was too cold and wet for any sizeable acreages to be covered and May became the busy month for potato growers. This means that the crop is several weeks later than the ideal timing. Other parts of the country were slightly earlier but still later than usual.
Consequently the growers holding stocks of last year’s crops have become more confident that there will be a shortage for several weeks during June and July when there will be very few good set-skin potatoes available. New potatoes should be in abundance but they are not suitable for baking potatoes because the skin is not mature and does not bake properly. There is some 2007 crop stored in environmentally controlled stores but much of it is lacking size and will produce few tubers suitable for the preferred baking grades and other stocks have internal bruising or hollow-heart rots. Finding the right material has become increasingly difficult and any good stock is commanding very high prices.
Imported stocks from France suitable for baking have helped somewhat for those outlets where country of origin is not an issue but again the proportion of baking sizes is disappointing. The availability of these French potatoes is now becoming tighter and they are no less expensive than from UK sources. The quality of the remaining stocks is also proving to be poor.
The late planting does not necessarily mean that next year will be another year of shortages. If the summer weather is right for good growth and good quality there should be ample supplies. The 2007 crop was not only down with regard to the yield per acre but also the waste because of poor quality was much higher than the average. In a season when the growing conditions are good, a higher yield with better quality can be achieved even after late planting.
The first reports of the UK planted area suggest that there has been less planted than last year. Almost all European countries report a smaller area planted compared to last year. This is mainly because other crops are now giving much better returns than previously. As has been widely reported this week in the national and international news, almost all agricultural commodities have risen in price considerably over the last twelve months. This makes crops other than potatoes more attractive to grow and in particular there has been a much larger area of wheat sown this year.
Another factor in trying to forecast next year’s prices is that new potatoes are making very high prices at the moment. New potatoes are harvested “green top” which means the crop is still in full growth and the grower only lifts the quantity that he can sell immediately because they only stay fresh for a few days. Growers monitor their crop and will harvest when they have a large enough yield and are offered a good enough price to make a profit. If prices are low, growers tend to leave the crop in the ground to continue to gain weight until the yield combined with the price gives them the profit they need. If prices are high, they tend to lift the crop when the yield is much lower. The knock-on effect of harvesting the new crop when the yields are low is that a greater area is cleared early making a higher demand for the later “new” crops and prices tend to stay high right into the harvesting of the maincrop varieties.
To summarise, the next two months are going to be very difficult. There are no clear figures to indicate the volume of the 2007 crop still in store but it is almost certain that there is a serious shortage. The relief will come when there is enough of the 2008 crop sufficiently mature to use for bakers and the timing of that will depend entirely on the weather. The crop has been planted late but went into good soil conditions and now has had plenty of rain so conditions could be right for a good growing season. We all hope to have a more “normal” season after the last two years of high prices and difficult supply.
Rob Bannister
Robert Bannister ©2008
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Traditionally Baked Potatoes